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AlexKar
13.04.2006, 17:31
Now to me 19, body height 176, weight 65. You, as the expert in narcology, should know about me though something "to see" me.
Till 13 years I was engaged ssoboj - studied. For this time has won more than 20 times competitions, Olympiads... The best reader of verses of district, the best mathematician, the best composition... It is a lot of that else. Then at me has begun teenage periud. It wanted to me to be with those "durachkami" which stood up for an angle of school and smoked.

In 14 has started to smoke cigarettes.
In 15 to drink beer, gins
In 16 wine, vodka, more often jaguar and red devil
In 17 has started to use marihuana, through a floor of year a hasheesh.
Hardly later I have started to notice that something not so, but that, I could not understand. I have ceased to communicate with school friends (narcomaniacs), have turned alone. At once pojavilos huge quantity or amount of complexes.

Left school in 18 I have met with local, and all has again begun. I have started to use not only ALL from what have escaped, but also have tried or tasted an amphetamine and tablets (patsifik, a smilie...) Has thrown university and all the summer long I "walked".

Once, being under tablets I have understood that all my friends narcomaniacs, topers, PTushniki. We in small district, have "brigades", thieves in the law, drug-dealers... And all about it or this I know. In all our night clubs of 75 % narcomaniacs, the others "durachki" pjushchie beer with dimidrolom. All this has very strongly loaded me, and I after 3 times have ceased to accept tablets, it was the beginning. Has strongly reduced the use of alcohol, drugs. I was longly loaded, but have then realized, that I should aspire to any purposes (which I did not have 5 years). Hotjaby to start to work.

Last stage or periud has begun, I do not know as to name, mine narkomanskoj lives. I have started to work and have had an opportunity round the clock to drink, smoke, narkomanit. On job I went to work, but job prevrashalas in chaos. I sat and saw in all klintah institutions in which worked old friends, in the future and the past. Around there were good people, best of the best, but all narcomaniacs. Whether I have started to think these friends and campaign to which I stremilja are necessary to me. Has started to argue, and what if I have not lit or smoked? And what if I have not tried or tasted a jamb? And that if I...

I have come to conclusion, that sushestvuet any secret world or global government, that us wish to destroy tobacco, alcohol and narcotics, as Indians, which live in rezervuatsijah (in zoos for people), it is time also to us to do or make what that conclusions. All impact goes on us, on youth, we shall be upravjat the country. Can you tell or say what is it what nibud my mental deviation or rejection, but I am assured or confident of the head. And all is somehow trite on inclined... To Teachers SPECIALLY pay few money, therefore experts zakonchevshie pedagogechisky do not go to work in schools, and work menendzherami and proravtsami, but not as teachers. In the turn children do not receive normal education, and get on streets. A vicious circle. The militia receives a little and consequently, takes bribes. Doctors badly treat because they do not have equipment and medicines. I, the student of legal university, to crying of money and the chief of a course and the dean. Us such 80 %. I nothing knowing, shall go zashchishat people! I had oshchushenie that all this not simply so, that all can be corrected, that I can correct all! Probably at me has ended podrastkovyj periud and I povzraslel. Can my genes have played a role, I do not know, but:

I have sent all "friends", was bought or purchased by yoghurts, fruit juices, vegetables... Books and clauses or articles, all those things which should me help or assist to throw all.
3 months I accept nothing, neither a grass nor a hasheesh, anything. 2 months as I do not take alcohol, neither wine, nor beer. Week I do not smoke a cigarette.
The web-programming, history has taken a great interest in political science. Has started to run in the mornings, vostanovilsja at university, tomorrow I shall go to get a job, will be sobosedovanie.

What to do or make further? As to me to live if I am done not pleased with a grass, she not such green, and not so heats the sun...
How to cure cardiovascular system?
How vostanovit job gepotolamusa to start to study?
How to cure a liver?
How to clean lungs?

Dr. Davidov
15.04.2006, 15:53
I in-many or -in many respects;-much cannot disagree with you. There are people, shall not name their names which have received premiums of "World" for our destruction. Laws and conditions are framed, at which..... And you could see all this. Us, all consider or count as full morons who see nothing and do not remember (promises and sayings of "our" principals). But it is a site not political, therefore we shall return to a subject.
You correctly have made all and have acted or arrived and very much I hope, that you will have enough forces (both physical, and -psychological) what to not begin all anew.
If you live in Moscow come to me on consultation. You have very much liked me, and though Gippokrat forbade to the pupils to assist gratuitously (free of charge), I all shall a little break or disturb this principle and I shall give you full consultation on your state of health and the reference on the further actions. If you not in Moscow write also I to you I shall try to write more in detail references, but already without any medicinal purposes or appointments (without personal survey I never appoint or nominate any medicinal treatment) and only leaning or basing on general provisions.
But remember! - you have chosen a difficult way, but it is a life.

AlexKar
21.04.2006, 19:36
Unfortunately at me the keyboard has broken, I could buy or purchase it or her only today. I have paid attention, that you not only the expert in narcology, but also the psychiatrist. Whether tell or say to me all so, or I see the world not as you and bolshchaja a part "normalnog" the population?


I in-many or -in many respects;-much cannot disagree with you. There are people, shall not name their names which have received premiums of "World" for our destruction. Laws and conditions are framed, at which..... And you could see all this. Us, all consider or count as full morons who see nothing and do not remember (promises and sayings of "our" principals).

Let's assume, that all chapters or heads of the large states a certain secret organization which operates or controls the world has put. As she through the vasalov has already created the official document " Gold billion ".

In itself it is spoken, that the planet the ground can support only 1 billion Others 5.5 billion should be lost. The gold billion included the USA, Canada, Israel, the Europe (only western, east has not entered) and Japan. The others should be lost. Tell or say it not really, to destroy 85 % of the population of a planet and that all were silent? Really, job is conducted.

The population of Africa fasts, they have nothing to eat, they perish. There is a huge quantity or amount of the armed juvenile children incorporated in groupings. Suddenly whence do not undertake, has appeared SPIDD and other illnesses or diseases got or started by Europeans... I do not wish to concentrate attention to Africa, but today 40 % of Africa are ill or sick with this illness or disease. Africa is destroyed - the task is executed.

The USSR (Russia, Armenia, Belarus ) will be destroyed by alcohol, tobacco, debauch and narcotics. It is a -narcotic genocide. In 14 years the child tries or tastes a cigarette, in 15 beer, in 16 vodka. By 32 years he has time to give birth to the child-naO?a and to be lost.
If he starts to play about narcotics lives till 25 years. Now in city huge quantity or amount of narcomaniacs. In my city of St.-Petersburg of 55 schools for Down. In some cities the quantity or amount of Down makes 60-80 %

The Muslim countries which are taken with alcohol, not debauch not narcotics, have decided to destroy war. You again tell or say, what is it is not real? Then that occurs or happens in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Iran?
Our enemies think at all in scales of five years' plans.

All channels of TV, radio, magazines, newspapers work for achievement of the purpose. One month ago I have bought or purchased to myself TV-tuner and have started to check channels on 25 staff. If you do not know, by means of it or him it is possible to catch and digitize TV a signal. At once I have found 25 staff in advertising, news, analytical forecasts, 25 staff is inserted even in antiprovitelstvennyh transfers job conducted, the consciousness of people varies. Today Indians live in rezervatsijah, this specially allocated place for conservation of a kind, zoos for people. It is time to do or make what that conclusions.

You did not reflect, why in news on ORT, RTR, NTV news newspapers the same news (subject)? I even have learned to foresee the future.

Today on all the channel piarili new documents, now all visas rise in the price up to 70 $ because in them have put the biometric chip. At once it was recollected, how about three months ago all television discussed this problem, but the attention of people managed to be withdrawn from the present or true problem.
Having broken off the document (another's and unnecessary) I have found there the chip. Open the documents (Russian) and look or see closely or attentively. If under a photo or in a photo there is a black stria know - the big brother observes of you. As the engineer-programmer I know as it is arranged. If to explain on fingers this chip works as simkarta in phone, but the electricity is not required to her. It is not necessary so to forget about mobile phones... Besides it would not be desirable to write much on this subject, and all this looks or appears is gone.

All of us we live not the mind or wit. Our consciousnesses are supervised and cope or controlled, and through the control and management of consciousnesses of separate people people and the states cope or are controlled. We have precise representation about the nature of the secret forces leading with Mankind multithousand-year struggle - without this extremely actual Knowledge now it is impossible even to understand, that occurs or happens in a reality, let alone, that protivostat to excellently organized and carried out plans.

I quote the deep statement of prophet Osii which is in the Christian Bible:/4.6./ My people for a disadvantage of conducting will be exterminated.


If you live in Moscow come to me on consultation. You have very much liked me, and though Gippokrat forbade to the pupils to assist gratuitously (free of charge), I all shall a little break or disturb this principle and I shall give you full consultation on your state of health and the reference on the further actions. If you not in Moscow write also I to you I shall try to write more in detail references, but already without any medicinal purposes or appointments (without personal survey I never appoint or nominate any medicinal treatment) and only leaning or basing on general provisions.
But remember! - you have chosen a difficult way, but it is a life.

I very much would wish to meet you not only for to receive consultation, but also to communicate (me is nobody to talk on subjects which me interest), but to sozheleniju I live not in Moscow, and in northern capital.
After I ran three mornings I have caught a flu and 3 days have lain with temperature 40.

Write to me please, as to me without assistance vostanovit the health. Thanks for attention.

mishanja
21.04.2006, 21:40
The grass strongly dries brains at long application, but then it vostanavlivaetsja. eOnn-whether you have had time to plant or put a liver to such age, even thumping. Stop to smoke and lungs in due course vostanovjatsja.
At you a young organism, he all will make up, the main thing do not poison or persecute it or him more.
The most serious-will get rid of thebaic dependence (here it really time OiON?-up to the extremity or end of a life not zabudesh) .ljudi turn in due course simply to "pigs"
With all other narcotics-has put or narcotics-business reperable, they do not cause or cause such serious accustoming.
Time a grass and a palate not that color-not suffices something means to your creative soul. Try or taste a good antidepressant a -life will play new kraskimi (on the example I speak)

Dr. Davidov
26.04.2006, 08:34
Independently, without the help of experts, to you to consult it will be impossible, as it is necessary to define or determine precisely all over again your status of an organism and only after that probably to give out correct purposes or appointments.
It, that, as to restoration, and that this restoration would begin - is necessary to exclude consumption of all kinds of narcotic substances, alcohol and tobacco.
And in occasion of all rest, prochtite Zamyatin "we" and Fedorova " Evening in 2017 ".

AlexKar
26.04.2006, 10:02
If you not in Moscow write also I to you I shall try to write the reference more in detail...
And when you write more in detail references?

Dr. Davidov
26.04.2006, 13:53
References, it not purposes or appointments. References on treatment in vertualnom space can be only as the guide to action that it is necessary to make for putting off or taking out of this or that problem.
In your case:
It is necessary to address internally for the help in the rehabilitational center where help or assist narkozavisimym to people. Before to pass or take place a diagnostic complex, for finding-out of presence both accompanying diseases, and complications.
The way complex or difficult enough, especially in the psychological attitude or relation, but it " costs or stands svech ".
To address it is necessary to the doctor to the psychiatrist-expert in narcology.
Without the help of the doctor, it is not necessary to be too self-confident, it is independent - nevrzmozhno to stop the use of narcotics without any consequences in the mental plan. Even if you can stop the use of narcotics the help is necessary for stabilization of a mental status.
Any medicamental purposes or appointments can be made only after preliminary survey, all purposes or appointments are done or made only individually, proceeding from special parameters of an organism which at each person is distinguished or various.

real_moogle
04.05.2006, 17:24
What destruction of the world... The Dude! Besides depression at you also a paranoia. upejsja in an ass of beer mozh polegchaeet.

Dr. Davidov
05.05.2006, 10:07
Beer, as well as any other alcoholic drink, causes advance of an alienation since changes metabolic processes in a brain. And the alienation, is that other as change of a metabolism of a brain. Accordingly at already available disturbances of a metabolism, it is imposed additional factors (alcohol) which strengthen this process. What for to the person to advise from what it or he already has problems?

P.S. Alcohol, narcotics, tobacco, poisons or venom, etc. chemically active substances, acting in an organism of the person, first of all put or render "impact" on a tissue of a brain, destroying cells and changing biological processes, break neuronic communications or connections. Consequences can be various and frequencies and durations of the use of these substances depend on a dose. I shall already not speak about functional frustration of internal organs, such as a liver, kidneys, cardiovascular system, etc., occuring or happening vsledstvii the use of these substances, occurrence of dependence on them. And if to speak only about consequences from a brain and nervous system vtselom there is an oppression and its or her destruction and begins from easy or light;mild depressions and comes to an end with full deleting of the person, utter annihilation of a brain and transforms the person into a certain essence which lives only on the rests of congenital reflexes, without memory, speech, any skills, without the elementary thought processes and if to compare to fauna this essence can be compared only to an ameba. I at all do not intimidate and I do not frighten is the fact, with which I (and not only) collide or face daily. If to look at a brain of such person, by means of MRT the homogeneous mass is observed, without any educations inherent to normal structure or frame of a brain.

Jazzy
05.05.2006, 18:15
Hello. From the beginning of autumn incidentally used psychostimulants. Already nearby 2 h months there is nothing did not use, attributes of dependence I do not observe, but mood and the attitude or relation to all any more that kogda-that. Whether for ever it? Whether it is possible vostanovit mediators any preparations and to return a psychological status in former norm or rate? Considering all njuansy problems, I all am assured or confident, that special medical therapy I do not require, as since the childhood took a great interest or was fond in psychology and I have an idea full about all this, quite I own an introspection. Stimulators became the reason nejarkovyrazhennogo a psychosis which in turn becomes the reason of excessive suspiciousness in some situations to overcome this or thus oppressing notku in a breast, prehoditsja prekladyvat it is a lot of efforts... As to restore a serotonin? In advance thanks!

Dr. Davidov
06.05.2006, 09:12
The psychology and psychiatry with a psychotherapy are very different directions, though and laying in parallele. The psychiatry is engaged in chemical and biological disturbances of job of a brain (disturbance of a metabolism), disturbances of its or his job whence follow and on this background there are various alienations (and for this purpose special maximum or supreme medical education is required). And psychology - intrapersonal and interpersonal attitudes or relations, characterologic problemmami. Besides addicting for psychology and deep studying of a subject, it rather and rather a greater or big difference. In this occasion there is not a bad joke when the man goes to a toilet and sees an inscription on a wall - " do not flatter itself, approach or suit more close.... ".
If you really used psychostimulants short enough time, restoration of a metabolism in a brain probably, due to its or his big reserve. But for this purpose it is necessary to address to the expert, the doctor to the psychiatrist-psychotherapist if, certainly, wish to restore really, instead of to aggravate a situation. Time the arisen disturbance, without professional treatment, completely does not pass or take place and will develop. Rate of development depends on a specific feature of metabolic processes and the mental organization of the person. And - on that they and alienations when at their development the person cannot objectively see, estimate or appreciate the status, therefore and there is no criticism to itself, the behaviour and t.d.., it, the person, cannot independently estimate or appreciate, since it is included or switched on in property of the disease.
And more one fact. Each psychologist, the psychiatrist and the psychiatrist-psychotherapist (psychotherapist) necessarily, not less often than an once in a year passes or takes place an aftertreatment at special doctors and experts (now they are called supervajzery) where them necessarily survey and follow a special rehabilitational policy. Why? Because it is independent, even the best expert in this area, not in a status adequately to estimate or appreciate the -psychological status.
Conclusion and advice or council - it is necessary to address to the expert - to the doctor to the psychiatrist-psychotherapist.

NightBoy
29.06.2006, 02:22
What destruction of the world... The Dude! Besides depression at you also a paranoia. upejsja in an ass of beer mozh polegchaeet.
Here the child of this plan!!!:mad:

Dr. Davidov
29.06.2006, 08:36
Quite right. Every year all becomes more terrible, where the country slides! For today in Moscow psychiatric and narcological clinics are hammered all, practically anywhere there are no empty seats! Unless it not a parameter of realization of " This plan "?

AlexKar
13.07.2006, 00:55
I was absolutely right, my idea was picked up by nationalists, horoshchie or bad does not matter. Now this blunt crowd operate or control tsru, and authorities know about it or this and when their time will come will destroy, but this blunt herd remains without leaders. Ridiculously to observe of them speaking about patriotism they support or maintain the countries GUAM and incite people against Belorusii, Armenia... Strategic partners... In couple of years and these partners does not remain. And then the Chechen Republic will receive independence, and behind them Ichkeria, Kabardino Balkarija, Adygea... ALL northern caucasus will be separated. And togla tjutju and to us and all Russia. And all potomuchto people have flown into a rage from the use of alcohol, a nicotine... Psychotropic substances.

Dr. Davidov
16.07.2006, 23:47
But in any Variant - Destiny the person owns and to begin it is necessary from itself. As personally you concern to people, the most usual, in the street, in turn, on road, etc. If you put yourselves above all and it show, multiply the Harm. Whether it is better, instead of empty reasonings and verbalizations - to start to live respecting and liking associates, that prenosja in the World kindly. Only through it is kindly possible to rescue or save the world and the country. Esteem the bible and try to live on Precepts. First it will be not easy or light, but then the world will change to you and you will start to notice changes.
Snasala it will do or make everyone 100, then - everyone 50, - 10 and gradually all. Someone should begin and begin not preach, and act, show on the example.
Try or Taste, it is pleasant to you.

Ieronim
21.07.2006, 16:55
Dr. Davidov,
I under the private or individual initiative wish to look or see at statistics of a mortality from smoking a little from other point of view.

Has read through some documents, for example ( http: // www.ctsu.ox.ac.uk / tobacco/SMK_All_PAGES.pdf ). However at documents (data) available me there is, in my opinion, one feature which can speak about "eyewash" from official establishments.
I wish to obtain more exact data on my hypothesis.

Whether you could help or assist with search of data?
http: // forum.nedug.ru/showthread.php? t=445155


Preliminary - according to Peto (on specified url'), for 2000, among men (on women for some reason very strong, napravdopodobnoe, difference), the mortality from smoking makes in an age range of 35-69 years 231306 chel. The general or common mortality for this range - 699439 person. Like 33 % (you on a site have digit 42 of %, but it is not important yet).
I see, that to people data " on smoking move " zamylennye. "Zamylivanie" are made with the purpose to present the simple person insignificance of harm from smoking, or purposely to reduce digits on " mortalities izza smoking ".

" Zamylivanie data " 1:
The range of 35-69 years is taken too far on the senior limit. Average life expectancy of men - something about 60 years. Raspingly speaking, " if up to 65 has lived is already well ". If to consider or examine data on a range of age of 35-55 years the parity or ratio of morses will be another.
Here data http: // www.pubmedcentral.gov/articlerender.fcgi? artid=437139*rendertype=table*id=tbl5 on research " Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observations on male British doctors ". If to look or see on those data " from other point of view " we shall receive a conclusion, that the mortality of smokers exceeds a mortality nekurilshchikov in 3 times (for age from 35 till 64 years, see 5). However, if prosummirovat -VA morses non-smoking and thrown, yes with -half-and-half to allocate a range of 35-69 years, yes to look or see a ratio (smokers) / (++) we shall receive to habitual us already " 51 % " (33 %, or at you - 42 %).
Indicative example zamylivanija the Representative of the general director has resulted or brought the CART in Russia Mikko Vienonen (!!!):
" According to about a state of health of the population of the European region, the use of tobacco products is the reason 1,2 million morses or 14 % from all lethal cases annually. "
http: // contact.tobinfo.org/p/news.p... theme=sourc_who


" Zamylivanie data " 2:
Priumenshenie percent or interest by "wrong" (in sense "smoking-protecting") manipulations with data.
Having considered or examined a mortality from conducting operations in Afghanistan in 1980th years, it is possible to do or make variously conclusions on them. It is possible to shout that " nafiga that war if 16000 is necessary to us! Ours the soldier poleglo there nizachto ". And by the way, including these "cries" have played some role in decomposing the USSR. And it is possible to look or see at a parity or ratio of morses - for 10 years was lost 16000, means for a year on the average perished 1600 soldier, at the general or common mortality in 2.5 million ?N?/year we shall receive percent or interest - 0.064 %, i.e. (ostensibly) " ischezajushche it is not enough ".
And so, it is possible to tell or say, that (231306 men-smokers) / (1179775 men have died all) = 20 %, i.e. type " everyone the fifth will die of cigarettes "; And it is possible to tell or say in another way: of smoking dies in (231306 men-smokers) / (35000 victims in road accident) = 6.6 times (!) more, than in road and transport incidents!

If the difference in manipulations with data is not present, why ofitsialam to not choose such manipulations which would "stick out" or "evaginate" a mortality from smoking, thus "straightening out" beginning or starting smoker?

Ieronim
21.07.2006, 17:32
Version " Zamylivanija data 2 ":
The parity or ratio of morses (smokers) / (++) is wrong, for with the same success it is possible to find a ratio (smokers) / (+++_+++) and by that we shall receive the size aspiring zero.

It is necessary to take a parity or ratio of the RESULTED or BROUGHT morses (smokers) / (non-smoking). I.e. digits of morses of smokers - to divide on -in smokers, and digits of morses non-smoking - above opodelit into quantity or amount non-smoking.

Such practice of "reduction" is used for a long time, at data acquisition " on 100.000 population of an interesting range ". In the English-speaking literature there are concepts age-adjusted sizes when data wish to lead to age ranges.

Why " clever scientists " do not use this mechanism at processing stat.dannyh on smoking - not clearly. More correctly, pugajushche it is clear (plot?).

And here when " under a magnifying lens " we shall consider or examine a mortality from smoking, we shall receive not notorious " 33 % " risings of a mortality, and in 10 (!) times.

Pravozashchitnichki frighten:
" Only for first nine months of " the second Chechen war ", by estimations Human Rights Watch, were lost from 6.5 up to 10.5 thousand person from among peace inhabitants. " ( http: // www.memo.ru/hr/news/demo2002.htm )
It (on the average) 11333. To compare about 231000 (only men).
Why do not blow in these bells "pravozashchitnichki"?

Or:
" According to pravozashchitnyh the organizations, during war in the Chechen Republic since 1994 was lost and has died of wounds in hospitals about 18 thousand Russian military men, about 70 thousand peace inhabitants.
So mass destruction of people during the long period of time, undoubtedly, speaks about disability of the state to provide safety of the citizens. " ( http: // www.pravoza.ru/anketa.php )
I.e. 88000 chel to divide or undresse into 2 wars - it turns out on 44000 chel. And that is for _ _ years.

And when of tobacco dies 231000 only men annually is "normally", about it it is possible to forget, " well smoke and smoke ".

And in fact it annually in 5 (!) times more, than in one of two Chechen companies... Or for 10 years (1996-2006) from smoking has died not less than 2.3 million person - and where "rest" in comparison with this digit digit of morses in the Chechen Republic?? It turns out 4 %.

Ieronim
22.07.2006, 01:10
I have made the ZHZH, have paid there attention to a problem of smoking.
http: // mcgru.livejournal.com

Dr. Davidov
24.07.2006, 11:02
[B] In occasion of harm usual tabakokurenija I with you absolutely agree [/B.] In Russia prophylaxis of diseases and not only tabakookurenija, but also an alcoholism, a narcomania, and others is still too weak. It would be completely not bad to restore practice "Sanprosvetov" and to enter, though time into a week, lectures at school, and probably to begin it is necessary since a kindergarten, on prophylaxis of various diseases, including to lecture on harm tabakokurenija (inherently - one of sections of an addictology, it is accordingly ranked as one of kinds of a narcomania).
In occasion of researches - how much researchers, are so much and data. As a matter of fact, "to adjust" necessary quantity or amount it is possible to any dissertation:rolleyes:. With it or this sinned in due time;). But that FACT, that tabakokurenie causes huge injury or damage not only to health, but also economy, to challenge it is impossible.
You have spent good job and for it to you MANY THANKS, not only from me, but also from all reasonably conceiving MANKIND visiting or attending the given forum. If you not against I would place your research on the site if want - with your link.
Search of data on the Internet to you of advantage or benefit will bring a little, since far not all publekuetsja here. The full and on this subject can be found a trustworthy information in the Central library it or him. Lenin.

Ieronim
25.07.2006, 15:30
Thanks for an estimation:), but only "research" is too loud name for that that I have done. Pure or clean time - well, hour 4 probably (short of time spent in emotional discussions).
Here Richard Doll - that daaa. I in fact its or his data have in another way shown, all.

(As though to Richard Peto to write? He like is alive still)


since all is far not is published here.
I have noticed already.

However, for all peerly I SEARCH: http: // mcgru.livejournal.com/tag/blue_form

Dr. Davidov
26.07.2006, 08:16
Such statistics is conducted, certainly, but she will not display the valid state of affairs. After mors, as a rule, nobody gets to the bottom of the true reasons of mors. If it was, for example heart attack in the conclusion the doctor- writes, for example: the mors has come or stepped from an acute heart failure, an ischemia. But nobody investigates or researches the reasons of this failure. The reason is described only when the person up to mors hurted or was ill;was sick also its or his attending physician was close or attentive.

Ieronim
26.07.2006, 17:31
After mors, as a rule, nobody gets to the bottom of the true reasons of mors. If it was, for example heart attack in the conclusion the doctor- writes, for example: the mors has come or stepped from an acute heart failure, an ischemia. But nobody investigates or researches the reasons of this failure.
And, in my opinion (not unreasonable), and to not necessarily doctor- to get to the bottom of the reasons of an ischemia. There is enough at an extract of the certificate on mors (and without it or this is anywhere; vagabonds it is not counted) to take the information from relatives - the person smoked or did not smoke in general when has thrown with what was intensity of smoking. The last - for more thin detailed elaboration.
What will this picture give? We shall admit or allow, number of morses from illness or disease where in the column "Smoker" there is a tick - To, number of morses from this illness or disease on nekurilshchikam - N.Mozhno (and even it is necessary) to make still distribution on age: _45_54, _45_54.
Let the percent or interest of smokers (+, but it it is possible and separately on floors) in the given age range - is peer to Item
Then, the percent or interest c without taking into account the factor of smoking will be +* / (1-).
And the number of the morses caused __ by smoking, will be then peerly -* / (1-).
It will be possible to look also on smoking/non-smoking/thrown or stopped.
And it will be such statistics against which spetsy from the tobacco companies of anything cannot tell or say. It now they speak - yes your researches on influence of smoking - and eggs vyedennogo do not cost or stand, everywhere it is possible to find places which are not maintained by critics or criticisms.
And actually - why do or make epidemiological estimations which inherently are estimated when can be collected direct the statistics!
It is equal so more difficultly to create the new form of the certificate on mors (to modify it or him a little), yes to oblige doctors- (more correctly, workers of morgues) to give once a month (in a week) data in the certain statistical departments (the different organizations that there was no rumour about unconscientiousness obrabotchikov statistics).
Charges - for 20 minutes of working hours of the expert on each mors. On 2 dollars on each mors. 4 mln.dollarov in a year on the country. And in general - for the certificate on mors and so money collect from clients (relatives died). Additional 2 dollars strongly will not impair a little if to explain a picture, especially, on what this money (if clients will ask) will go.

Ieronim
26.07.2006, 18:51
By the way, has considered better...
Whether in the document http: // www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/blue_form.pdf in fact costs or stands " Has made tobacco the contribution to mors? " And four variants of the answer: " Yes. No. Probably. It is not known. "
Such statement of a question really demands more detailed studying of the reasons of mors. Directly the consultation can be collected on each mors.
And the main thing - from the tobacco companies can be reduced any discussion to " and here at a conclusion of the reason of mors you have made an allowance such and consequently all your conclusion can be lowered or omitted in a garbage basket, no less than the statistics collected by you "
It is asked, for what then to collect such statistics which one "spittle" can be crossed out???

So will not go.

I apologize, certainly, for the categoriality (especially, I at all the physician). But in struggle against smoking of more advantage or benefit the statistics " Kuriles would bring. Did not smoke. Has thrown (how much years back). Intensity (cigarettes/days) or put). "
And informativnee, and before the tobacco companies it is more reliable.

Ieronim
26.07.2006, 19:03
The only thing, that brakes me in the impulses " to understand as follows with smoking " is that for certain such " fighters with smoking " as I in history already was much enough. I not the first and, probably, not last.
I am afraid, that all " groans from below " up to a management or manual of the public health organizations do not reach. Ranking officers of public health services are borrowed or occupied by struggle against the tobacco companies - struggle how much to them "to concede", they " coordinate or agreee the actions " with the tobacco companies (!) (there are written proofs)

It turns out it is pessimistic enough - us kill, and to complain there is nobody. More correctly to complain to eat to that, but assistants in getting exact statistics among med.rabotnikov are not present.
And a sublayer med.personala everyone understand average, are ready to operate/help or operate/assist;work/help, but the top layer med.personala (those who is closer to the government so to tobacco lobbies) will neutralize them.

And without digits to go and beat in bells - it is senseless. Tobacco manufacturers will quickly shower with rotten eggs.
And digits can be extracted or obtained only by means of physicians. And at approval by the state.
And an apex of physicians - podpityvaetsja tobacco lobbjami. And approval from the state to receive difficultly izza the same lobbej.
Vicious circle.
Sadly.

Ha. Or to make " a course a horse "?
To find, arrive, meet personally workers of morgues (the management or manual disappears by virtue of their possible or probable processing from more maximum or supreme rukovodostva, and those can be in turn processed lobbjami), to ask them to collect for the sake of kind business or affairs statistics. To find the sponsor before which rigidly to report - to pay under the minimal tariff the collecting of the information on morgues.
The information to form by a principle: Date of mors, Age (date of a birth), a floor, the reason of mors, [smoked/?NOO??, when has thrown, intensity].

Great Richard Doll has made " vysokootsenivaemuju job ", having processed rather small kolichesvto morses. For example, on born (to doctors of the Great Britain) in 1900-1930, smokers was all about 2500 morses! And nekurilshchikov let 1700. And thrown let 1500. Total - only 5700 morses on which it was done or made some (on which refer!) a conclusion! Yes, by several illnesses or diseases.
But...
2.2 mln.smertej in a year on 300 mln.naselenija in the USA. So it more than 7300 morses on 1 mln.naselenija (in a year). At us only half-Moscow, yes L-?ONOa (let pol-to not strain all morgues, can at whom it will not turn out) is for a year nasobiraetsja statistics on morses - nearby 50000. From them 30 % will be connected with smoking - about 15000 morses (it almost in 3 times more than statistical volume Dolla) somewhere. If to make 5 age intervals in everyone "will settle" under 3000 histories. Let the basic illnesses or diseases caused by smoking and leading mors, will be nearby 5, it will turn out on 600 histories in each age interval by each illness or disease. Let third - women, two thirds - men (by an available "preliminary" statistics of a mortality).
Total - we shall receive at least under 100 histories in a cell defined or determined by a floor, age, illness or disease. 10 % an error (it is the highest will be) are just that edge, than it is possible to prick out " an eye of a tobacco lobby ". Her will get to the bottom!
And on scales of all country - it will be defined or determined at least 200-300 morses from smoking. To compare to a mortality in automobile failures or accidents (35).
Well and let then the government does or makes conclusions.
At the slightest hint on complaints on a demography - to beat on arms or hand and to show " missing lives ", left izza smoking.
To accuse of it or this the tobacco companies. And it will be nonempty charge.

Ieronim
26.07.2006, 21:16
Since across Russia business or affairs with smoking are even worse, than in the USA or the Great Britain, but across the USA or GB is available more detailed and accessible infa on mortalities, I shall spend such here small and ochchen interesting (with far-reaching conclusions) the analysis...
Though something also is available at Peto across Russia, but somehow too a greater or big difference between men and women on smoking, improbable. Therefore we shall process data across the Great Britain, we shall take relative -in morses across the USA, and we shall lead all these are Russia recalculation on total of the population and on protsentazhu smokers. Percent or interest of smokers in the USA - about 25 %, and in Russia - at least 40 %.

For the analysis this picture is required to us here:
http: // pics.livejournal.com/mcgru/pic/00001bcd /

Morses of smokers: 150 (35-44), 490 (45-54), 710 (55-64), 730 (65-74), 450 (is more senior 75).
Us the pension picture will interest.
In Russia at what age retire? In 65 it seems?
However, in some data on a mortality there is an age range 35-69. Vozmyom polovinku from Dollovskogo a range 65-74, it will be 365 morses.
So, on Dollu, in a range of 35-69 years it is had 1715 morses. From them dopensionnyh morses from smoking - 1350, or 78 % from the lost smokers.
Let's transfer or carry this percent or interest to the USA.
In 2000 according to http: // www.ctsu.ox.ac.uk / tobacco/SMK_All_PAGES.pdf in the USA was lost from smoking in the age of till 69 years 118 men and 73 women. It 191 in the sum.
In the USA 290, in Russia 145, i.e. in 2 times it is less than population.
In the USA vego smokers 290*0,25=72,5, from them annually dies nedozhiv till 70 years - 191, i.e. 0.263 %.
We pass to Russia. Here 145 the population, from them of 40 % of smokers. Means smokers 145*0,4=58. Annually dies of smoking in the age of till 70 years, using percent or interest across the USA, we receive 0.263 % * 58 = 152 the person.

To receive -in morses dopensionnogo age, it is necessary -in to increase it by 78 % (according to Dolla, on doctors in the Great Britain). We shall receive 118.

118 thousand person annually do not live up to pension...
QUESTION. And where dejutsja money which takes away the state (pension fund), and not only from the physical face (1 %), but also from the enterprise (14 %)? In the sum of 15 % from wages.
And how much it in general?

Let's admit or allow, the person starts to work in 25 years (while there institute, army, yes syo).
Middle age died up to pension will make (according to Dolla): (150*40+490*50+710*60)/1350 = 54 years.
The average salary, according to goskomstata, in Russia, in ~2004 year, makes nearby 250 USD/.

We receive such picture: the Person starts to work in 25, smokes, in 54 (on the average) he dies of cigarettes, and its or his pension at a rate of 15 % from received - (54-25) *250*12*0,15=13050 USD (and it only on one person! Interestingly, yes?) - leaves... Somewhere...

On all morses in a year we shall receive 118000*13050 = is not present, you now will not mishear:
1.5 BILLION DOLLARS ANNUALLY ACROSS RUSSIA
Or nearby 128 mln.dollarov monthly

Now we shall look or see how much excises is going to?
Consumption in Russia: 310 mlrd.sigaret in a year, it is 15.5 mlrd.pachek. Everyone we shall estimate or appreciate in 0.5 dollars. It is 7.8 ??On.n??./year.
Excises make about 16 % from retail cost. I.e. 1.24 ??On.n??./year...

And now we shall compare tsiferki...
op-a?y?!
Duties from cigarettes: 1.24/year
nedovydannaja pension: 1.5/year

Here also think - why also who at us tobacco lobbies...